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Statistical Football prediction is a method used in sports betting, to predict the outcome of football (soccer) matches by means of statistical tools. The goal of statistical match prediction is to outperform the predictions of bookmakers[citation needed][dubious ], who use them to set odds on the outcome of football matches.

The most widely used statistical approach to prediction is ranking. Football ranking systems assign a rank to each team based on their past game results, so that the highest rank is assigned to the strongest team. The outcome of the match can be predicted by comparing the opponents’ ranks. Several different football ranking systems exist, for example some widely known are the FIFA World Rankings or the World Football Elo Ratings.

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Another approach to football prediction is known as rating systems.While ranking refers only to team order, rating systems assign to each team a continuously scaled strength indicator. Moreover, rating can be assigned not only to a team but to its attacking and defensive strengths, home field advantage or even to the skills of each team player (according to Stern [1]). An example of a football rating system is the pi-rating system[2] which provides relative measures of superiority between football teams (also applicable to other sports), and which is said to outperform considerably (in terms of profitability against the betting market) the widely accepted Elo rating system.

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One Weeks SubscriptionThe subscription business model is a business model where a customer must pay a subscription price to have access to a product or service. The model was pioneered by magazines and newspapers, but is now used by many businesses and websites.

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Membership fees to some types of organizations, such as trade unions, are also known as subscriptions. Industries that use this model include mail order book sales clubs and musicsales clubs, cable television, satellite television providers with pay-TV channels, satellite radio, telephone companies, cell phone companies, internet providers, software providers, websites (e.g., blogging websites), business solutions providers, financial services firms, fitness clubs, lawn mowing and snowplowing services and pharmaceuticals, as well as the traditional newspapers, magazines and academic journals.

Renewal of a subscription may be periodic and activated automatically, so that the cost of a new period is automatically paid for by a pre-authorized charge to a credit card or a checking account. A common model on websites, colloquially becoming known as the freemium model, is to provide one tier of content for free, but restrict access to premium features (for example, archives) to paying subscribers.

Updated: August 2, 2017 — 1:45 am

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In organized sports, match fixing occurs as a match is played to a completely or partially pre-determined result, violating the rules of the game and often the law. The most common reason is to obtain a payoff from gamblers, but players may also intentionally perform poorly to gain a future advantage, such as a better draft pick or an easier opponent in a play-off. A player might also play poorly to rig a handicap system.

Match fixing, when motivated by gambling, requires contacts (and normally money transfers) between gamblers, players, team officials, and/or referees. These contacts and transfers can sometimes be found, and lead to prosecution by the law or the sports league(s). In contrast, losing for future advantage is internal to the team and very hard to prove. Often, substitutions made by the coach designed to deliberately increase the team’s chances of losing (such as having key players sit out, using minimal or phantom injuries as an excuse), rather than ordering the players actually on the field to intentionally underperform, are cited as the main factor in cases where this has been alleged.

Match fixing generally refers to fixing the final result of the game. Another form of match fixing, known as spot fixing, involves fixing small events within a match which can be gambled upon, but which are unlikely to prove decisive in determining the final result of the game.

Other names for match fixing include game fixingrace fixingsports fixing, or hippodroming. Where the sporting competition in question is a race then the incident is referred to as race fixing. Games that are deliberately lost are sometimes called thrown games. When a team intentionally loses a game, or does not score as high as it can, to obtain a perceived future competitive advantage, the team is often said to have tanked the game instead of having thrown it. In pool hustling, tanking is known as dumping. In sports where a handicap system exists and is capable of being abused, tanking is known as sandbagging.

Updated: August 1, 2017 — 1:50 am

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lottery is a form of legalized government gambling that involves the drawing of numbers for a prize. Lotteries are outlawed by some governments, while others endorse it to the extent of organizing a national or state lottery. It is common to find some degree of regulation of lottery by governments; the most common regulation is prohibition of sale to minors. Though lotteries were common in the United States and some other countries during the 19th century, by the beginning of the 20th century, most forms of gambling, including lotteries and sweepstakes, were illegal in the U.S. and most of Europe as well as many other countries. This remained so until well after World War II. In the 1960s casinos and lotteries began to re-appear throughout the world as a means for governments to raise revenue without raising taxes.

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Updated: August 1, 2017 — 1:40 am

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With La Liga not getting underway until the latter half of August Atletico Madrid have enjoyed a lengthy summer break, only returning to action last week when they faced Toluca. That game ended goalless, but we’re hoping for a more entertaining match on Tuesday.

Atletico Madrid’s squad is pretty much the same as it was last season, thanks to their transfer ban that covers this summer market. The big name to leave is Theo Hernandez, who has switched sides to Real Madrid. Hernandez spent the season out on loan at Alaves though and has never made an appearance for Atletico, so he won’t be a miss this season.

This leaves Diego Simeone very little to do with regards to squad integration, with the manager instead focusing on trying to bridge the gap between them and Real Madrid and Barcelona with their current flock of players. The one positive to come from their transfer ban is that they have been able to keep hold of star striker Antoine Griezmann, so we can expect another season of him teaming up with Yannick Carrasco and Koke.

Napoli have also been fairly quiet in the transfer market, signing centre back Nikola Maksimovic, winger Adam Ounas, and midfielder Marko Rog. Most importantly they have been able to ward off any interest in their star players, so Marek Hamsik and Lorenzo Insigne can try to pry the Serie A title from Juventus’ grip.

The Italians have already been involved in plenty of pre-season action too, starting it with a huge 17-0 win over Anaunia in the middle of July and playing against Trento, Carpi, and Chievo since then. They have friendlies against Bournemouth and Espanyol to look forward to after the Audi Cup as well.

Despite this being a friendly, we’re not expecting too many goals here. Atletico Madrid have seen fewer than three goals in seven of their last nine non competitive games and tend to keep it tight at the back even in friendlies. Odds of 11/10 for Under 2.5 Goals look good value, so we’re backing that and a 1-1 correct score predictions at 11/2.

Updated: August 1, 2017 — 1:24 am

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Football Betting TipsThere’s more money than ever before sloshing around in the Sky Bet Championship these days and both of my fancies for promotion are among the many clubs spending big bucks.

There can be surprises; I was shocked as Huddersfield went up last term after David Wagner’s approach paid dividends. However, if the clubs with the biggest budgets fail it’s more often than not down to incompetent management, both on and off the pitch, over a sustained period of time.

That’s why I don’t like the chances of Sunderland and Hull to make an immediate return to the Premier League, although I think Simon Grayson is a strong choice by the Black Cats to restore some stability.

You’ll find out my verdict on each of the 72 clubs in the EFL when our team-by-team guide is published on Tuesday afternoon but this preview focuses on the best betting suggestions for the new campaign.

I’m siding with Middlesbrough over Aston Villa as my headline pick for promotion from the two clubs battling it out at the top of the market.

All of Sky Bet’s promotion prices for the Championship!

Villa will be in contention for a play-off place but Steve Bruce’s men are not as proven a Championship commodity as Boro.

I successfully backed Boro to go up a couple of seasons ago as they pipped Brighton to second behind champions Burnley.

Aitor Karanka was the man in charge of the Riverside Stadium outfit back then but the Spaniard departed last season in the midst of a timid slide to relegation.

The defensive strength that the return to the top-flight was built on remained as Boro conceded 53 goals during the campaign, a total that was less than 10 other Premier League clubs. Bournemouth, who ended up in ninth, conceded 67.

However, you won’t be surprised that Boro’s return of 27 goals scored was the lowest in the Premier League.

Rectifying that awful return in front of goal is the main task for new manager Garry Monk, who takes charge after Steve Agnew oversaw the confirmation of relegation as caretaker-boss.

Monk has acted quickly to add Nottingham Forest striker Britt Assombalonga for a club-record £15million, Toulouse forward Martin Braithwaite for around £9million and West Ham’s Ashley Fletcher for £6.5million.

Assombalonga is a proven goal-getter in the Championship. He netted 30 goals in 65 Championship appearances during an injury-hit spell with Forest but he got through last season unscathed and struck 14 times.

Braithwaite is a more interesting addition. The 26-year-old Denmark international was expected to move to the Premier League but Boro won the race for his signature after 12 goals in France’s top-flight last term.

Fletcher didn’t get the chance to shine during his one season with West Ham but he’s certainly another interesting option as well as Patrick Bamford and Rudy Gestede for the new Boro chief.

Monk has also added a great deal of Championship experience to his squad with West Ham goalkeeper Darren Randolph, Derby defender Cyrus Christie and Norwich midfielder Jonny Howson all signing on the dotted line.

It’s a very sensible recruitment policy. I think 12/5 is an acceptable price for Boro to follow Hull, Burnley and Newcastle over the last couple of seasons in bouncing back to the Premier League at the first attempt.

That’s clearly the remit for Monk and getting Leeds to challenge for the play-offs last term proves that his success in taking Swansea to League Cup glory and mid-table in the Premier League wasn’t a one-off.

Leeds fell away from the top six in the final weeks of the season but it was still a vast improvement from a run of Championship finishes – 14th, 13th, 15th, 15th and 13th – over the previous five campaigns.

Monk’s pragmatic approach is perfect for a promotion bid, see both Rafael Benitez and Chris Hughton for examples last season, and his ability to get the best out of a previously underachieving Chris Wood at Leeds proves that he can make attacking talent sparkle.

Sky Bet odds: Can Middlesbrough return to the Premier League?

Wolves are the other team I’m backing to get involved in the promotion tussle.

The first season of the club being run by Chinese owners Fosun International didn’t go to plan, other than an FA Cup victory against Liverpool at Anfield.

Both Walter Zenga and Paul Lambert are consigned to the list of former Wolves managers after a 15th-placed finsh but I’m expected better things now former Porto and Valencia boss Nuno is in the hotseat.

The summer recruitment drive has been eye-catching to say the least.

Porto midfielder Ruben Neves was expected to end up at Chelsea or Liverpool but instead joined Wolves for a club-record £15million. He’s been joined from his former club by defender Willy Boly on a season-long loan.

Defender Boly is already a fans’ favourite, while Neves at 20-years-old and already boasting a couple of full international caps is as impressive an arrival from abroad as I can remember in the Championship.

Super-agent Jorge Mendes’ involvement at Molineux is key to these deals and there are plenty of questions around how sustainable the approach is in the long-term.

That leads to Wolves needing to win promotion quickly and Nuno changing the Molineux men’s approach to a more patient style of play can cause plenty of problems for their rivals.

Rafael Benitez, Jaap Stam, Carlos Carvalhal and David Wagner are all examples of how managers from abroad can adapt to the Championship and Nuno looks more than capable of adding his name to that list. That’s provided he’s given the time.

The Portuguese led Rio Ave to two domestic cup finals in his homeland and the Europa League for the first time, as well as Valencia to a fourth-place finish in LaLiga.

His time with Porto was disappointing by the high standards of the Portuguese heavyweights but that leaves him with something to prove and he has the funds to make an impact at Wolves.

The Molineux outfit underachieved last season but there’s more than enough talent in the squad to do better. Ivan Cavaleiro and the impressive Helder Costa will be better for their first taste of English football and there’s plenty of Championship experience throughout the squad.

I’m going to go with a smaller stake on Wolves to go up as 9/2 is available for Nuno’s side in the promotion betting.

Sky Bet’s top goalscorer prices for the Championship!

My final tip for the Championship season is a contender at just too big a price in the top goalscorer market.

Billy Sharp is returning to the Championship after two seasons in League One with hometown club Sheffield United.

The 31-year-old was the third tier’s top scorer last season with 30 goals and that followed on from 21 in the previous campaign.

A return of 51 goals over the last two seasons is deserving of serious respect and Sharp benefits from Blades boss Chris Wilder’s decision to have him as the fulcrum of the attacking play.

I fancy Wilder to keep United out of trouble and into a mid-table finish. That means Sharp will get plenty of chances to continue scoring and he’s got a goals return in double figures in four separate Championship seasons during his career.

There’s 66/1 on offer for Sharp to finish as the Championship’s top goal-getter and that’s worth an each-way interest given both his recent record and previous efforts in the division.

Updated: August 1, 2017 — 1:12 am

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